As France sinks into the political mire, Macron must be kicking himself

It was a blow most saw coming but that can’t have softened the sting for French President Emmanuel Macron.

Opposition lawmakers from both ends of France’s political spectrum joined forces Wednesday to vote to oust his government, which had been in office for just nine weeks, marking the first such fall in a no-confidence motion since 1962.

The minority government led by a veteran negotiator, Prime Minister Michel Barnier, whose appointment was already seen as a political compromise of sorts to sate a tricky three-way split in the national assembly, tumbled at the first hurdle.

Who comes next?

As the latest round of political head-scratching begins in France, the main question on everyone’s lips is: “Who will Macron pick as the next prime minister?”

Barnier – a champion of the European Union’s Brexit negotiations and serial compromise man – was seen as a fine balance between Macron’s increasingly right-leaning centrism and the political heft of the far right.

Macron ignored the left’s previous nomination for prime minister, and no far-right candidate appeared to be in the running. (Jordan Bardella, the top disciple of far-right leader Marine Le Pen dropped out of the running after their National Rally (RN) party failed to win a parliamentary majority.)

In a polarized French parliament, few figures for the next PM seem palatable, yet fewer still appear likely to be successful. Many in the country are preparing for a surprise.

How will this happen?

Unless the next government leans heavily into a coalition with either the broad left-wing or far-right bloc, it doesn’t seem possible to avoid a repeat of this week’s political dead-end.

For Macron at least, the arithmetic doesn’t add up. With the parliament pretty evenly split between left, center and far-right, he needs a friend.

What’s sure is that Macron’s grand plans for domestic policy reform are dead in the water.

Both the left and far-right are violently opposed to most tax hikes and austerity measures. Barnier’s budget, which sparked his downfall, included €60 billion ($63 billion) worth of tax rises and spending cuts aimed at bringing the country’s budget deficit down to 5% next year, according to the government’s calculations.

Yet given the policy divides between Macron’s domestic ambition and both other camps, anything more than bench-warming will be almost impossible for any future PM.

The opposition camps can smell blood in the water. The left-wing New Popular Front group has already declared it would bring down any government that doesn’t have a leftwinger at the helm.

The left – who were the ostensible winners of this summer’s snap election, after voters banded together to deny the far-right a widely-expected victory – want their first-place ranking respected, with lawmakers coming out in force overnight to put the crosshairs firmly on Macron’s back.

“The Macronists lost the European (elections), they lost the legislatives. And now Emmanuel Macron plans to name a Macronist (prime minister) again. There’s a democratic problem,” Manuel Bompard, national coordinator for the far-left France Unbowed party said Wednesday night.

Le Pen’s political tribe, riding the crest of their record-setting election results in April, still seem to have their eyes set on 2027, the next presidential election.

However the current political impasse is resolved, it surely provides only a poisoned chalice for the next prime minister.

Le Pen has booted the blame for the crisis to Macron and offered little in the way of solutions, pointedly not calling for his resignation Wednesday night.

Needing the backing of one camp to pass his budget earlier this week, Barnier sidled to the right more than the left, appeasing Le Pen’s demands. She then appears to have stabbed him in the back.

Barnier accused the far-right of political blackmail after he said they demanded even more from him, setting the stage for the no-confidence vote. Conveniently for Le Pen, it was a left-wing motion that doomed Barnier (even if the far-right later proposed a similar motion), with the left copping most of the government’s public ire over the move.

The far-right party members are keeping their powder dry. Le Pen knows they can demand even more from Barnier’s replacement.

Why is this happening?

The political machinations on the right and left appear little more than gamesmanship.

It’s wishful thinking from the left that Macron will resign. A politician who is never one to back down from a fight, he’s safe in the Elysee until 2027.

The far-right don’t seem willing to sully their political polling with genuine cooperation with Macron.

Deadlock and discontent currently rule supreme. Once upon a time it was other European nations wracked by political turbulence, including stalemate in Belgium and fleeting Italian governments, among others. But France can’t boast of stability now.

The next presidential election in 2027 seems far beyond the political horizon, even next summer – the next possible chance of another legislative election – appears impossibly far away. The path ahead for France’s politics is rocky and barren.

For Macron, who kicked off this whole saga by calling an election to find stability, it’s an ignominious state of affairs.